N.B. 2022: I've left this post up as a piece of history, but I now believe all young people should get the HPV vaccines.
Dear Readers, I believe in going to the very top with the tough questions, so I wrote with no hope of an answer to the physician who developed the HPV vaccine, Dr. Ian Hector Frazer, Professor of Medicine, of the University of Queensland, Australia, and Chairman of the Board of the Translational Research Institute. He wrote back right away, answering my questions thoroughly. Here is our e-conversation of November 12, 2015:
The Critical Mom: I write as a lay person trying to assess the risks of HPV vaccine for my
eleven year old daughter. I've already read the CDC page and the Merck pages, and of course discussed the vaccine with our pediatrician, who tells me his daughter has been vaccinated, but I can't ignore the reports of adverse reactions from a number of young women, even though the CDC seems to think there's no pattern to them and that they therefore remain insignificant. I also wonder why, when only 1% of women in the developed world are affected, I'd want to assume that my daughter is at risk.
I pasted in my blog post of November 10, 2015 with the remarks of Dr. Diane Harper.
Dr. Frazer: Most of what Dr Harper writes in response to your questions is
true. However, unfortunately, 12,000 women continue to die of cervical
cancer in the USA each year where PAP smear screening is supposedly
routine.
While only 1% of women infected with HPV will develop cervical
cancer, more than half of all sexually active woman (even those in a
monogamous relationship with only one partner ever) will become infected
with a cancer causing HPV virus. PAP screening
is not a perfect test, (50% of precancers are missed on any one PAP
sampling) and it therefore only works to reduce the risk of cervical
cancer if a pap is done regular every 2-3 years - even then, some women
have disease that progresses from undetectable to
invasive cancer within 2 years.
In Australia where about 80% of girls have been vaccinated over the
last 10 years there has been a dramatic reduction in abnormal pap
smears (yes we still do them, because Gardasil 4 only prevents about
70% of cervical cancers - those due to HPV16 and
HPV18 - this will be less of an issue with Gardasil 9 which covers over
90%).
However from next year we’re going to test for the viruses that
cause cervical cancer, rather than looking for cancer cells, and testing
will be done less frequently because the virus test catches cancer
causing infections earlier than the pap smear
test.
The HPV vaccines have proven safe - the US and European regulatory
authorities have stated that there are no long term problems
attributable to the vaccine - just sore arms for a day or two in a small
number of girls and boys, and a 1 in a million chance
of an allergic reaction (that's the same odds as for all the other
vaccines your daughter would be likely to have had as a baby).
See for example this recent report from Europe that two diseases that have been said to be associated with the vaccine are not.
Another incentive to vaccinate is prevention of genital warts, not
lethal, but common, difficult to treat, and can be passed from mother to
baby to cause a rare but distressing and sometimes lethal disease in
the child.
In Australia genital warts and abnormal pap smears in young women
are now occurring at less than 10% of the rate that was observed prior
to the introduction of routine vaccination of girls in 2007 – modelling
predicts that with universal vaccination the
infection will eventually be eradicated from the community altogether
(maybe in 50 years).
In the meantime, personal protection through vaccination is effective at reducing the risk of cancer, and safe.
It's also worth pointing out that the studies in Australia have
shown the greatest benefit has been in girls vaccinated at age 12 –
those vaccinated at age 14 or older have had significantly less
reduction in disease. The most likely reason for this is
that by age 14 a significant number of girls have had contact with the
papillomavirus (contact does not need to be penetrative sexual
intercourse – other forms of genital contact are sufficient to spread
the virus). The median (average) age of first sexual
contact for girls in most countries in the developed world is between
14 and 15.
The Critical Mom: I have a pap
smear every year--actually my doctor recommends every year.
Why isn't a yearly pap test enough? You mentioned "every 2-3 years."
Dr. Frazer: The recommendation in Australia is that unless you have had an
abnormal pap in the past you should have the test every two years. In
Australia this strategy works as Gabrielle Medley did a chase back on
all women over a period of years who had developed
cervical cancer in Australia, and found that each of the women who had
had cervical cancer had not had smears according to the schedule, or
had had the smear but had had no treatment for an abnormal one. . I.e
the women who followed the pap smear schedule
and had treatment for an abnormal smear when it was found did not get
cancer. Unfortunately like the US we still have deaths from cervical
cancer because only 50% of women follow the PAP smear protocol.
The Critical Mom: If so very few women develop dangerous cancers when
so many are infected, and when so many infections seem to clear by
themselves,
how wise can it be it to vaccinate when the person might never be in danger to begin with?
Dr. Frazer: No one has died as a result of the vaccine (with 80 million women
immunised world wide), whereas 12,000 women die of cervical cancer each
year in the US and 250,000 worldwide, and 70% of those deaths would be
avoided by prior vaccination. So I’d suggest
that the risk without vaccination is much greater that any perceived
risk with vaccination.
The Critical Mom: The vaccination is said to be painful. Is that not in itself possibly a bad sign?
Dr. Frazer: Its a sign that your immune system is reacting to the vaccine –
your immune system needs a kick start to make a new immune response, and
the sore arm is the physical manifestation of the kick start that the
vaccine gives. This occurs with all vaccines.
However, we don’t remember the pain of a vaccine that was given when we
were 2 years old (fortunately)!
If
you doubt the virtues of vaccination, you might want to look at a
graveyard that was in use in the 19th century and count
the number of children under 10 who died of infectious diseases that we
now vaccinate against like measles, chickenpox, diphtheria, tetanus,
whooping cough.
This gives me plenty to think about. Point by point:
•Girls, get your pap test! Every year! Here in Northwestern Germany, my gynecologist recommends a yearly exam and pap smear.
• No one has died as a result of the vaccine (with 80 million women
immunised world wide)
• According to a group known as the National Vaccine Information Center--whose beliefs are generally rejected by the medical profession--deaths have occurred as a reaction to the vaccine. Wikipedia identifies the group as a "public charity" and an "anti-vaccination advocacy group."
Be aware, readers, that by quoting their opinions I'm giving equal time to the highly respected Dr. Frazer and to a group
that is considered by many physicians to be the lunatic fringe. This
group disputes not just the HPV vaccine but many vaccines; some doctors
associated with them are against all vaccines. Some believe in a
different vaccine schedule.
I don't
buy the idea that all vaccines are bad and I would not need a visit to a
19th-century graveyard to convince me that many children died of
diseases now prevented by the standard childhood vaccines.
The website publishes the claim that the following girls and women died or were disabled after receiving an HPV vaccine:
Even if I remain uncertain about the reality behind these stories, I'm still bothered by two things:
(1) The rate of reported adverse reactions to HPV vaccines seems higher than the rate of reported adverse reactions to any other vaccine.
(2) Why should there be "a pattern" to reactions in order to consider them legitimately reactions to the vaccine? You can go on the Snopes.com discussion of the vaccine and find an explanation, the gist of which is: a man gets a vaccine, happens to hit his vaccinated arm with a hammer the same day, and complains of an adverse reaction in that arm.
If only it were that simple. Are all these reactions really something that science can measure? To say yes means to assume that there must be a pattern to a reaction.
Doctors and concerned citizens, continue to weigh in. I'm a tough customer. Before I consider this vaccine for my daughter, I'm going to be damn sure I think she'll be helped, not hindered, by it.